How international book markets performed in 2021

Through the PubMagNet initiative, a collaboration between book industry trade magazines from around the world, representatives from publications in Italy, Spain, the UK, Russia, Norway and the German-language markets have shared insights with Books+Publishing about how their respective markets—as well as estimates of other European markets—fared in 2021. Additional reporting from China and the US helps fill out the picture of the global publishing market.

Despite ongoing uncertainty relating to Covid-19 variants and resulting issues with supply, staffing and pricing pressures, most markets—including all of Europe, the US and UK—bounced back to have a strong year in 2021 following mixed results in 2020. A notable outlier here is China, where book sales failed to recover from a substantial hit the previous year; physical bookstores in particular are struggling, with their sales still down by more than 30% compared to pre-Covid levels.

The international book industry continues to consolidate with mergers and acquisitions among publishers in markets across the globe; almost every market noted recent takeovers that have seen the largest publishers increase their market share.

Other trends replicated across multiple markets include record sales, as seen in Spain and the UK; a flattening of ebook sales growth; the cooling of nonfiction sales; the growing ecommerce sector and the continued threat of Amazon; and the boom in manga sales in Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK (as well as locally, where sales of manga more than doubled both in volume and value). After two years of Covid-19 lockdowns and other pandemic measures, bricks-and-mortar stores have emerged as the clear losers in many markets.

Locally, the Australian book market recorded a 1% year-on-year dip in volume (to 65.4 million units sold) and 2.5% growth in value (to $1.26 billion) in 2021, according to Nielsen BookScan. According to research from the Association of Italian Publishers, the US is the largest market for books in the world, followed by China, Germany, the UK, France and Italy.

China: bookshops suffer as online sales take over

The market report from China comes from Beijing OpenBook, via Publishing Perspectives. While sales from physical bookstores were up 4.1% and online sales up 1% on 2020, this represents a marked slowdown in growth for a developing market that, prior to the pandemic, was regularly posting double-digit year-on-year growth. In 2020 sales were down 5.1%, the first year of negative growth since OpenBook began monitoring the book market, with the year marking the end of a five-year consecutive run of annual growth of 10% or more.

Accordingly, OpenBook said China’s bricks-and-mortar bookstores ‘have not fully recovered’ from a disastrous 2020, while the growth of online bookstores has slowed down ‘significantly’. ‘The situation of physical bookstores is grim, with a year-over-year decrease of 31.09% against 2019 levels,’ OpenBook said. For the second year in a row, online bookstores accounted for 79% of total book sales.

A unique feature of China’s bestselling fiction books is that close to 40% of the titles originate as online literature. Online literature—commonly serial instalments of user-generated content—is a popular feature of many Asian reading cultures, and in many cases a long-running and popular digital series has a built-in audience for the book edition. The growth rate of children’s books has slowed, with the sector recording 1% growth over 2020 following a substantial drop from 2019 levels. Children’s books on science surpassed kids’ literature as the strongest sub-category, while the Chinese Traditional Culture for Children sub-category recorded the highest growth rate of 109.5%.

The number of new titles entering the market in 2021 was on a par with previous years, with 2.23 million unique ISBNs and 193,000 of them new last year.

German-language markets: online sales grow as bookstores take a hit 

Buchreport’s analysis of the DACH region—Germany, Austria and Switzerland—found 2021 to be a stable year for book sales.

Print book and book-related physical media sales were up 3% on 2020, due to both an increase in sales volume and a slightly higher average selling price. Compared to 2019, revenue remains stable; however, this is due solely to the higher average selling price, with unit sales still down overall. Buchreport also states there has been a ‘dramatic’ shift in the way books are being sold, with bricks-and-mortar stores losing market share to online sellers.

In Germany alone, book market revenue grew 3.2% in 2021, with more books sold (+1.6%) at a higher average selling price (+1.6%). Compared to the last ‘normal’ year, 2019, turnover is slightly up (+0.8%) due to the significantly higher average selling price (+4.8%); book sales have shrunk ‘significantly’ during this period. Sales are being led by strong results in the adult and children’s books segments. In particular, manga is experiencing steep growth, with comics and manga rising to become the third-largest adult fiction segment on the back of high double-digit sales growth.

Like in many other markets, sales through bricks-and-mortar shops were hit again by repeated lockdowns. After closing 2020 with sales down 8.7%, physical shops recorded another 3% drop in sales in 2021—meaning they’re down 11.5% since 2019. By market share, ecommerce has risen by about eight percentage points to now account for about a third of all sales. According to Buchreport, Amazon is not the only beneficiary, with booksellers’ online shops helping to compensate for the decline in retail sales.

The estimated growth of ebooks has slowed after a ‘dynamic’ year in 2020, when revenue was up 8.7% on sales volume growth of 11.6%. In 2021, there was a 4.1% growth in both revenue and sales volume, with the average selling price of €9.17 (A$14.60). This data, which excludes Amazon and Apple, only takes into account ebook sales of €3 (A$4.70) or more. 

Italy: sales bounce back amid manga mania

In 2021 the Italian book market bounced back from a Covid-affected 2020 to surpass 2019 sales levels, says Informazioni Editoriali, citing its tracking service Arianna+ (based on a sample of 1650 bookshops, not the market as a whole). This includes both bricks-and-mortar and online shops, with the important exception of Amazon. Book sales were up 16.9% on the previous year, more than making up for the drop of 14.6% the market suffered in 2020. Turnover was up 10.4%, a rebound on the 9% drop in 2020, with books being sold at an average of €14.78 (A$23.70), slightly down on 2020.

Unchanged from previous years, the fiction category accounted for the highest number of sales, followed by children’s, nonfiction and classic books. However, the 2021 Italian book market was marked by the outbreak of the comics phenomenon, led principally by manga comics. Manga sales at Arianna+ bookstores recorded a triple-digit increase in volume and value, with Informazioni Editoriali adding that the trend is probably underestimated because of high-volume sales through Amazon. The comics market share in Arianna+ bookstores has risen from 2% in 2019 to 2.7% in 2020 and 5.5% in 2021. Fourteen manga titles and two graphic novels made the 100 bestselling titles of 2021, which also comprised 29 local fiction titles, 21 foreign fiction titles, 17 nonfiction titles and just nine children’s books.

In a situation similar to other markets, Italy’s largest publishing company, Arnoldo Mondadori Editore, continues to increase its market share as it increases its focus on the core business of books, with acquisitions of publishers, a publishing promotion company and a distributor, with more deals expected to be announced shortly.

Norway: solid year as streaming wars heat up

Bok 365 says 2021 was a ‘solid’ year for the Norwegian book business. While official figures won’t be released until June, estimates from book distributors put sales growth at up to 8.5% year-on-year (excluding streaming, more on that below). By category, the biggest growth was in sales of Norwegian children’s nonfiction titles (+28.4%), followed by translated adult fiction (+6.7%) and translated children’s nonfiction (+6.6%). Translated adult nonfiction saw the biggest drop (-33.1%) followed by children’s fiction (-4.4%).

One trend Bok 365 notes is the uptick in sales of original Norwegian titles. Over the past 10 years sales of local titles have grown from 3.2 million books in 2010 to 3.9 million in 2020. During the same period, sales of translated books have almost halved from 4.1 million to 2.3 million. Paperback sales have also dropped markedly, down 24% since 2018 and 11.2% from 2020 to 2021. This is largely owing to the Scandinavian audiobook streaming ‘explosion’.

On streaming, Bok 365 writes that ‘the stage is set for a tough battle’ in the Scandinavian market, with established players Storytel and Fabel and newcomers BookBeat, Nextory and Ebok/Coop Story all competing with unlimited streaming models. As reported by Books+Publishing, late last year Swedish audio streaming service Spotify acquired US-based digital audiobook distributor Findaway.

Meanwhile, several Norwegian publishing houses strengthened their market positions with new owners. There are now six strong publishing companies in Norway—Gyldendal, Cappelen Damm (owned by Egmont), Aschehoug, Bonnier Norsk Forlag, Kagge (owned by Politiken) and Vigmostad & Bjørke—which account for the ‘vast majority’ of profits in the Norwegian publishing industry. Medium and small-sized publishers have been weakened in recent years.

Norway’s bestselling book of 2021 was a nonfiction title by former Minister of Culture Abid Raja, translated as My Fault: A story of liberation. Overall, there were fewer bestsellers in 2021, with only seven titles—down from 24 in 2020—selling more than 20,000 copies.

Russia: online sales booming

Book Industry magazine writes that although official data for 2021 has not been released, the Russian Book Chamber has indicated a slight increase in year-to-year sales, although still below 2019 levels.

The Russian market is being led by a booming online sales channel. According to one estimate, online sales of print books reached ₽29.5 billion (A$510m) in 2021, up from ₽26.4 billion (A$460m) in 2020 and ₽23 billion (A$390m) in 2019. The majority of sales come through established online stores Ozone and Labyrinth, as well as newcomer Wildberries. According to Book Industry magazine, publishers are expecting further growth in online sales of 20–30% in 2022.

Other trends include the rise in ‘esoteric’ literature (covering titles on spiritual practices and mindfulness), which grew about 53% year-to-year; the expansion of bookstores into regional areas of the Russian Federation; and the popularity of bloggers and social networking in promoting titles.

In mergers and acquisitions, Eksmo/AST—Russia’s largest publishing house—is set to acquire publisher Azbuka-Atticus, pending approval from the Federal Antimonopoly Service. If the deal goes through, the group will control about 80% of Russia’s fiction market.

Spain: sales turn a corner years after financial crisis

Spain celebrated a record year of book sales revenue in 2021, says Dosdoce—although final figures are still being confirmed. The estimated year-on-year growth was between 20–25% in 2021; for the first time in a decade, sales are tipped to have passed €1.1 billion (A$1.73b).

The estimated results buck a 10-year trend of minor annual growth, culminating in a year of flat sales in 2020. ‘This impressive [estimated] 20% growth in 2021 indicates that Spain is finally recovering from the huge financial crisis that eroded close to €900 million (A$1.4b) in print sales during the crisis years (2007-2014),’ writes Dosdoce. ‘Notwithstanding, the sales increases incurred in 2021 still do not cover up the sales losses from 2007–2014.’

Accordingly, the biggest drivers of the 2021 recovery were the ‘eruption’ in sales of graphic novels, comics and especially manga in Spain, which grew 70%; the release of big-name bestsellers in 2021 that had been held over from publishing in 2020; the emergence of new readers (which has grown from 50% of Spaniards to 54%); the rise of audiobook consumption, primarily (85%) via streaming platforms; and the growth in ecommerce in the wake of repeated lockdowns. Online print sales accounted for up to 35% of total sales in 2021, compared to around 20% in previous years, with Amazon accounting for about half the sales.

By category, backlist fiction sales were up 8–10% on 2021, while nonfiction sales experienced a significant sales bump with an estimated 10% growth. By format, print accounts for 68% of unit sales; streaming platforms—including elending—account for 25%; and ebooks account for 7%. Ebook and audiobook sales, which grew 130% in 2020, are back to a ‘normal’ growth rate of around 10%. For the big publishers in Spain, digital sales account for between 20–25% of revenue.

By publisher, Planeta and PRH account for about 25% of the market each, following a wave of independent publishing house acquisitions. While there are around 600 small and medium-sized publishing houses producing 40% of titles, they represent less than 10% of total sales. Self-published books have an unusually strong foothold in the Spanish market. It’s estimated one out of every four ebooks is self-published, led by local self-publishing and distribution platforms Bubok and Lantia, as well as Amazon. Estimates of the annual revenue from self-published titles range from €5 million (A$7.84m) (according to Libranda) to up to €10 million (A$15.7m) (Bookwire). 

UK: record sales despite supply chain issues

The UK had ‘a remarkably strong year despite heavy supply chain pressures in the second half and continued fall-out from Brexit’, writes the Bookseller. ‘It’s been stop-start on the pandemic, with staff beginning to return to some publisher offices during the autumn, only to be put back into working from home measures again, which have just now lifted.’

As previously reported by Books+Publishing, Nielsen BookScan recorded 2021 as the biggest ever year for print book sales by value in the UK. There was a total of £1.82 billion (A$3.4b) of sales, up 3% on 2020 and higher than the previous record of £1.79 billion (A$3.4b) in 2008. Nielsen used a formula based on a combination of the final 42 weeks of sales and estimates of sales for the first 10 lockdown weeks of 2021, when UK booksellers were closed for in-store sales.

The boost to sales was led by strong performances from fiction and children’s titles. Fiction sales in the final 42 weeks of 2021 were up 21% on the same period in 2019 and accounted for 23.8% of the overall market—the largest share for fiction since 2012. Children’s sales in the final 42 weeks of the year were up 15% on the same period in 2019, while nonfiction was up 3%. The UK also reported that manga sales leapt 157% to £18.3 million (A$34.4m). Meanwhile, the average selling price for a book rose for the ninth year in a row to £8.84 (A$16.6).

In line with other markets, it’s estimated that ebook sales fell back in 2021 after a ‘bonanza’ year in 2020. According to data from the UK’s top six trade publishers, ebook sales were down around 13% year-on-year to 47.5 million copies—‘still a very healthy level’ according to the Bookseller.

Bucking the wider international trend, bricks-and-mortar retailers—including indies—are continuing to do well. Around 60% of respondents to the Bookseller’s indies Christmas trading survey said sales were up on the previous year, while the Booksellers Association now boasts 1027 indie members, the highest number since 2013.

Waterstones, meanwhile, which experienced a sales and profit hit in 2020, has boasted of a ‘bumper year’ of sales in 2021. WHSmith, which reported a £116 million (A$218.3m) loss in 2021, has seen its high street business doing much better than its travel stores, and ‘appears to be recovering well’.

There’s some discussion and speculation on how the shift to online sales during the height of lockdown affected different retailers. While Bookshop.org continues to be popular, anecdotally, the Bookseller suggests it could be taking more sales from Waterstones than from Amazon. Another noted issue was reports Amazon was buying up large quantities of Christmas stock in Autumn, leading to fears other retailers would miss out.

US: YA, fiction sales lead second consecutive year of growth

As previously reported by Books+Publishing, NPD BookScan data found print book sales were up 8.9% in 2021, while the Association of American Publisher’s (AAP) Statshot program recorded an estimated 12.2% increase in publishers’ sales revenue.

NPD BookScan data shows a total of 825.7 million print books were sold in the US, up from 757.9 million in 2020. The YA segment had the largest increase, growing 30.7%. Adult fiction sales were up 25.5% and sales in the juvenile fiction category grew 9.6%, while adult nonfiction sales rose 4.4%.

According to the AAP—which tracks sales from 1369 publishers—sales totalled US$15.4 billion (A$21.6b) last year, up from US$13.7 billion (A$19.2b) in 2020. The increase was led by a rebound in sales in the K–12 instructional materials category, as well as a solid year for trade segments.

Estimates of other European markets

The Italian Association of Publishers (AIE)—in collaboration with Nielsen Book Data and Informazioni Editoriali­—produced a report on the state of the Italian and European book markets in the second year of the pandemic.

Provisional data from the AIE Research Office, which comes from various sources, estimated that each of the markets measured showed year-on-year growth. Aside from the markets mentioned above, other results were for Poland (+9%), the Netherlands (+8%) and Austria (+4%).

Category: Features